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The San Diego County economy took a dip in June as help wanted advertising and building permits dropped, said a monthly study from the University of San Diego.
It was the second month in a row that the index, which looks at economic activities in the region to judge its overall health, declined.
Job growth for the first six months of this year was good, adding 37,000 more jobs than the same time period in 2015. Yet, that data is delayed and the number of employers seeking workers in June declined by 2,800 posts.
The job growth is a measure of the past and it could be that help wanted (advertising) is a measure of the short-term future, said Alan Gin, author of the report for the universitys Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.
Still, the report said the outlook for the rest of the year looks good, in part because of job growth. There were also some healthy signs in June the national economy was up, as were local stock prices.
USD Index of Leading Economic IndicatorsBuilding permits: -0.63%
Unemployment insurance: -0.49%
Stock prices: +0.96%
Consumer confidence: -0.11%
Help wanted advertising: -1.59%
National economy: +0.64%
Source: University of San Diego
Building permits for residential housing dropped for the fourth month in a row. For the first six months of this year, permits were down 8.2 percent. The number of single-family units authorized were down 25 percent and multifamily down 0.53 percent.
State and local leaders have pushed for more multifamily housing because they say denser development serves more people and is less harmful to the environment. However, a recent report from the London Group Realty Advisors argued the region was too focused on multifamily when millennials will eventually want to move into single-family homes.
The unemployment rate in June rose slightly to 4.9 percent from 4.4 percent in May. It was the first time it was negative in eight months.
Consumer confidence in San Diego was down for the eighth month in a row, which is still a bit of a mystery. One theory from the author is that real wages have not gone up much. Accounting for inflation, wages increased just 1.2 percent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015.
phillip.molnar@sduniontribune.com (619) 293-1891 Twitter: @phillipmolnar
Source: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jul/29/help-wanted-down-june/
