As Tuesday night got going, most people suspected that Republicans were headed for a good night. This, after all, was what the polls strongly suggested. Instead, they had a great night.
What is odd is that, while there was a cluster of conversations suggesting we might see Republican gains of around six-to-eight Senate seats, six-to-nine House seats and the loss of a few governorships -- and a secondary cluster analyzing why Republicans might be disappointed (mostly citing the possibility that polls could be skewed away from Democrats by demographic undersampling) -- there was no cluster of conversations suggesting that the public polls might understate Republican performance. As the New York Times Nate Cohnput it: Im not aware of any evidence that polls underestimate Republicans. Please show me the data.
