Just how unlikely was Michigan State's 20-point comeback win over Baylor in the Cotton Bowl?
At one point, the Spartans had a 0.4 percent chance of winning the game, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
The network ranked the 10 most unlikely bowl comebacks of the last decade based on win percentage, and the 2015 Cotton Bowl came in at No. 3.
Michigan State's lowest chance of winning came with 1:05 left, when Baylor lined up for a 43-yard field goal that would have put the bears up nine points. At that point, Baylor had a 99.6 percent chance of winning the game.
But the rest of the game is history: a blocked field goal by Marcus Rush, long return by RJ Williamson and a touchdown pass from Connor Cook to Keith Mumphery with 18 seconds left gave the Spartans the win.
That sequence completed a 20-point fourth quarter comeback, the largest bowl comeback in Michigan State history.
In the past decade, only two teams have come back after having a lower percentage chance to win, according to ESPN: Idaho in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl and Boise State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
Two spots behind the Cotton Bowl came the other 2015 bowl in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. With former Spartans defensive coordinator and new Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi watching on the sideline, Houston recovered two onside kicks and came back from 25 points down to beat Pitt Friday in Fort Worth, Texas.
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Source: http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2015/01/michigan_states_cotton_bowl_wi.html
